Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for David Blough from EV Insight

David BloughPassing Yards

Right now, David Blough’s passing yards prop is set at 189.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 189.5 (-120) after it opened @ 203.5 (-114).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup QB David Blough this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a big 7.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.1 plays per game.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards