Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Carson WentzPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Carson Wentz’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 203.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Carson Wentz has attempted 36.9 throws per game this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among QBs.
- The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Carson Wentz has been among the least accurate passers in the NFL this year with a 61.5% Completion%, ranking in the 16th percentile.
- Carson Wentz has been among the least effective passers in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 6.20 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
