WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most yards in football (264.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.5%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.04 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in football.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards
236
Passing Yards
