Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most yards in football (264.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.5%).
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.04 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards