Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chargers vs. Rams
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 189.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 189.5 (-113) after it opened @ 196.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Rams rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 61.5% pass rate.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 61.9% to 67.7%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 8.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 6th percentile among QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
