Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-133) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the most yards in the NFL (289.0 per game) versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
- The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.39 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the NFL.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
- Aaron Rodgers has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (235.0) this year than he did last year (269.0).
- Aaron Rodgers’s passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 66.2%.
- The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards
257
Passing Yards
