Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-133) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have passed for the most yards in the NFL (289.0 per game) versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.39 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (235.0) this year than he did last year (269.0).
Aaron Rodgers’s passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 66.2%.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards