MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Zonovan KnightRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Zonovan Knight’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.44 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
