NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accrue 19.2 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.6% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has averaged 65.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (90th percentile).
- Travis Etienne’s ground effectiveness (5.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (85th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.7% run rate.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- The New York Jets defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.15 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards
93
Rushing Yards
