Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 17.8 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (71.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.1%).
Saquon Barkley has run for quite a few more yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).

Cons

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.31 yards-per-carry.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards