Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.0% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 17.8 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- Saquon Barkley has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (71.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.1%).
- Saquon Barkley has run for quite a few more yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
Cons
- The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.31 yards-per-carry.
- The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
