Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
