Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 81.5 (-114) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accrue 22.6 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team’s running game this year (87.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more yards per game (107.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense boasts the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards