Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 14.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (85th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (54.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.7% in games he has played).
Joe Mixon has been among the worst running backs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.64 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards