FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Ravens vs. Falcons
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-137) after it opened @ 56.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- J.K. Dobbins has picked up 60.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (81st percentile).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
