Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Lions
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-139) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to accumulate 16.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- D’Onta Foreman has received 44.7% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- The Detroit Lions defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 4.98 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.9 plays per game.
- The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
