MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 57.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 14.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- David Montgomery has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in football (just 105 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
