Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).

Pros

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 57.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 14.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Cons

The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
David Montgomery has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in football (just 105 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards