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Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D’Andre Swift from EV Insight

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D'Andre Swift

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Panthers vs. Lions

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-105/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-120) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).

Pros

  • The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
  • D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency has been refined this year, notching 5.66 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.76 figure last year.
  • Opposing teams have run for the 10th-most yards in football (134 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
  • The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • D’Andre Swift has been a less important option in his team’s running game this year (25.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (50.3%).
  • The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
  • The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards

Previous Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashid Shaheed from EV Insight Next Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight