Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-105/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-120) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).

Pros

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency has been refined this year, notching 5.66 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.76 figure last year.
Opposing teams have run for the 10th-most yards in football (134 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D’Andre Swift has been a less important option in his team’s running game this year (25.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (50.3%).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards