Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Giants
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-125) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to total 17.0 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.40 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for many fewer yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
- The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
