Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.8% run rate.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to garner 13.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has earned 51.8% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson has generated 62.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (85th percentile).

Cons

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brian Robinson’s rushing effectiveness (3.92 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (20th percentile among running backs).
Opposing squads have run for the least yards in football (just 74 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards