Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
- Austin Ekeler has received 58.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 33.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Austin Ekeler has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
- Austin Ekeler has been among the worst running backs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.75 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
