Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-133) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.8% run rate.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have utilized some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Cons

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Antonio Gibson has run for quite a few less yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Opposing squads have run for the least yards in football (just 74 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Rushing Yards