Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-123/-111).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-123) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 17.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has received 57.6% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.39 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (52.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
Alvin Kamara’s ground efficiency (3.79 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (12th percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards