Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-110) after it opened @ 87.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been a more important option in his offense’s passing game this year (33.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.9%).
Tyreek Hill has totaled a lot more receiving yards per game (100.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards