Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-137) after it opened @ 21.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.0% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
