Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-137) after it opened @ 21.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.0% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards