Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tutu Atwell from EV Insight

Tutu AtwellReceiving Yards

Right now, Tutu Atwell’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-115) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tutu Atwell to be much more involved in his team’s passing attack this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.5% in games he has played).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Tutu Atwell has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing just 47.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 16th percentile among wide receivers

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards