WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Tutu AtwellReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Tutu Atwell’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-115) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Tutu Atwell to be much more involved in his team’s passing attack this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.5% in games he has played).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Tutu Atwell has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing just 47.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 16th percentile among wide receivers
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
