Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 8.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 28.8% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has notched significantly more receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).

Cons

The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards