Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).
Pros
- Robert Woods has run a route on 86.9% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
- The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- Robert Woods has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
