Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Raiders
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-115) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has been a more integral piece of his team’s air attack this season (19.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).
- Pat Freiermuth has put up many more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (74.9%) versus TEs this year (74.9%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 67.7%.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
