WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
MyCole PruittReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Ravens vs. Falcons
Right now, MyCole Pruitt’s receiving yards prop is set at 8.5 yards (-108/-112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 8.5 (-112) after it opened @ 9.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- MyCole Pruitt’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 79.2% to 83.0%.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (78%) versus tight ends this year (78.0%).
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- MyCole Pruitt has been among the bottom pass-game TEs this year, averaging just 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 25th percentile among TEs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
12
Receiving Yards
12
Receiving Yards
