Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-123) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 3.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Logan Thomas has run fewer routes this year (64.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 60.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
