Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Giants
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- Justin Jefferson has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (112.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
- Justin Jefferson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 69.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
118
Receiving Yards
118
Receiving Yards
