Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Justin Jefferson has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (112.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).

Cons

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Justin Jefferson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 69.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
118
Receiving Yards