Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jerry Jeudy from EV Insight

Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards

Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to earn 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the league (71.6%) to wideouts this year (71.6%).

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerry Jeudy’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 65.3%.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards