Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Jelani WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Jelani Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-142) after it opened @ 17.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jelani Woods to accumulate 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Jelani Woods has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (59.7%) versus tight ends this year (59.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
