Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 98.8% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to garner 9.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja’Marr Chase has put up substantially more receiving yards per game (92.0) this season than he did last season (78.0).

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Ja’Marr Chase has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 8.84 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards