Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- Jakobi Meyers has been among the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (64.9%) versus WRs this year (64.9%).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
