Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-127) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to total 4.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Hunter Henry has notched quite a few less air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 34.8.
- Hunter Henry has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
