Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-114) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Gerald Everett to notch 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in the league.
Gerald Everett’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.2% to 68.5%.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 40.0) vs. TEs this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown strong efficiency against TEs this year, allowing 7.08 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards