Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-142) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to earn 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- Evan Engram has accrued many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
- Evan Engram has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
- The New York Jets defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) versus tight ends this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
