Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-142) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to earn 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
Evan Engram has accrued many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
The New York Jets defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) versus tight ends this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards