Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to accrue 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has been much more involved in his offense’s air attack this season (20.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.8%).
- David Njoku has totaled significantly more air yards this year (47.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
- David Njoku has accrued many more receiving yards per game (55.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 30.0) versus TEs this year.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in football (54%) vs. TEs this year (54.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
