Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-120) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to total 8.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Davante Adams has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 31.3% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Davante Adams has put up many more air yards this season (123.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (168.0) versus WRs this year.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Davante Adams has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (101.0).
Davante Adams’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 60.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards