Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-120) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to total 8.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
- Davante Adams has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 31.3% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- Davante Adams has put up many more air yards this season (123.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (168.0) versus WRs this year.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Davante Adams has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (101.0).
- Davante Adams’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 60.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
