Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Lions
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-142) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.6% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 7.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.9 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
