NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+115/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-145) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been among the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 31.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
