Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Watson from EV Insight

Christian WatsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-104) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 7.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards