Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Chris Godwin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 79.6% to 72.1%.
- Chris Godwin’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, accumulating just 7.51 yards-per-target compared to a 9.83 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
