Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Chris Godwin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
Chris Godwin’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 79.6% to 72.1%.
Chris Godwin’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, accumulating just 7.51 yards-per-target compared to a 9.83 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards