Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to total 9.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- CeeDee Lamb has been a more integral piece of his team’s pass game this year (29.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.7%).
- CeeDee Lamb has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Cowboys have been the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 55.8% pass rate.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 131.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the league (59.6%) vs. WRs this year (59.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
