Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Byron PringleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Byron Pringle’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Byron Pringle to be a much bigger part of his offense’s air attack this week (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
- Byron Pringle has been among the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an impressive 74.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile among wideouts.
- Byron Pringle has been among the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging a stellar 9.89 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
