Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk from EV Insight

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to earn 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk has totaled many more air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk’s 53.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 42.9.
Brandon Aiyuk has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).

Cons

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards