Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more important option in his offense’s pass game this year (31.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (22.1%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up far more air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued significantly more receiving yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).
- The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (164.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.35 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
