Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amari Cooper

Amari CooperReceiving Yards

Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-129) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
Amari Cooper has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this year (26.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (20.2%).
Amari Cooper has compiled far more air yards this season (101.0 per game) than he did last season (85.0 per game).
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Cons

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Amari Cooper’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 63.2%.
The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards