Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Philadelphia Eagles will be starting backup QB Gardner Minshew in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Eagles are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- A.J. Brown has posted many more receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards
91
Receiving Yards
