Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 203.5 (-115) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.8 passes per game this year, checking in at the 77th percentile among QBs.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has thrown for substantially more yards per game (260.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
- Trevor Lawrence’s passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.0% to 66.1%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 213.0 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards
184
Passing Yards
