Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 203.5 (-115) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.8 passes per game this year, checking in at the 77th percentile among QBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for substantially more yards per game (260.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Trevor Lawrence’s passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.0% to 66.1%.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 213.0 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Jets pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards