Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 277.5 (-115) after it opened @ 257.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Tom Brady has passed for quite a few less yards per game (291.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
- Tom Brady has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.54 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 12th percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
306
Passing Yards
306
Passing Yards
