Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 277.5 (-115) after it opened @ 257.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Tom Brady has passed for quite a few less yards per game (291.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
Tom Brady has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.54 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 12th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
306
Passing Yards